China's economy posts growth of 7.6%, but concerns remain
China's economy grew 7.6% (GDP) to RMB 210.2 trillion
in the first quarter, thanks to strong growth in exports
and heavy government spending. Exports climbed 9.9% to
RMB 534 billion, the high rate masking an abrupt slowdown
in March, to 3.4% year-to-year. Imports grew 5.2% to RMB
474 billion. With reference to the uncertain world economic
development after September 11, Moftec vice-minister Zhou
Keren cautioned against optimism and forecast a conservative
zero growth for China's exports this year.
China's foreign direct investment in the first
quarter of this year increased by 27.5% from the same
period last year to USD 10.1 billion. In the same period,
investment commitments or "contracted FDI" reached
USD 17.9 billion, rising 11.4%.
Fixed asset investment rose by 19.6% to RMB 467.2
billion, with spending on infrastructure projects up 20.6%
and on property up 36.2%.
Government spending rose 23.9% year-on-year to
RMB 351 billion while revenue grew just 3.4% to RMB 380.78
billion. Finance Minister Xiang Huaicheng said the country's
fiscal system was troubled and its growth remained dependent
on deficit spending. "No country, and no finance
minister, can carry out a proactive fiscal policy over
the long term and not have some problems emerge."
His comments indicate a fierce spending-policy debate
in the Government. Figures published by the central bank
gave further ammunition to those who argue the spending
policy is not working. At the end of last month individual
bank deposits rose RMB 505.1 billion from a year earlier
to RMB 7.9 trillion, a 15.2% increase from a year earlier,
while consumer loans rose only RMB 48 billion.
While savings rose, overall money supply growth
accelerated. M2 was 14.4% higher at the end of March than
a year earlier, topping the central bank's 13% to 14%
growth target for 2002. M1 increased 10.1%, and M0 gained
8.2%. Forex reserves were up 29% year-on-year.
Meanwhile, China's State Statistic Bureau affirmed the
government's inflation forecast for 2002 of between 1%
and 2%. China's consumer price index (CPI) fell 0.8% on
the year in March. Retail sales during the quarter
were RMB 1.004 trillion, an increase of 8.4% over the
same period last year, when growth was 10.3%. Analyst
said negative CPI was not a major cause for concern, but
declining retail sales growth was. consumer demand accounts
for about 60% of GDP growth.
(various sources)
China's Asia Forum limps to
apologetic close
Messily organised and awkwardly staged, the inaugural
meeting of the Boao Asia Forum, China's first attempt
at institutionalising a top-level international conference
on the mainland, limped to an apologetic close on the
weekend. Zhu Rongji, China's premier, apologised in a
private meeting to the foreign and Chinese sponsors, which
included Goldman Sachs, CNN, Siemens and Audi, for the
poor organisation. (FT, 15 April) The national media
were rather more enthusiastic.
Japan wavers on financial aid
to China
Japan will provide USD 1.22 billion in loans to China
for the fiscal year ending April 2003. The amount is down
25% from that of the previous fiscal year. The Chinese
Government expressed its understanding of Japan's battered
economic and fiscal conditions and need to reform its
official development aid programs. Minister of Foreign
Affairs Tang Jiaxuan said that "some Japanese are
afraid that the loans are nurturing a powerful competitor".
(Business Weekly, 16 April)
Tax cuts no longer a stimulus
- minister
China will not resort to tax cuts to fuel its economic
development this year, Finance Minister Xiang Huaicheng
said. His remarks came after some experts claimed that
the growth of tax revenue in recent years was much faster
than that of economic growth. Tax cuts will be of little
help to China's economic development, because the variety
of indirect taxes include value-added tax, consumption
tax and business tax which made up more than 50% of the
country's overall tax income, Xiang said. (China Daily,
17April)
Microsoft keeps facing difficulties
local market
Despite strong brand recognition, the company's public
image has been damaged by extremely high prices, overly
aggressive anti-piracy campaigns and its alleged monopoly
practices. Microsoft China's net income in 2000 is estimated
at about USD 100 million. The company's global net income
amounted to USD 25.3 billion in the 2001 fiscal year.
(www.cbiz.cn, 17 April)
China Eastern orders 20 Airbus
jets for USD 800 million
China Eastern Airlines signed a contract with Airbus to
buy 20 Airbus A320 jetliners. The order was a breakthrough
for Airbus, which hadn't made any major sales to China
in five years. (ChinaOnline, 17 April)
Mainland eclipses U.S. as Taiwan's
No. 1 export destination
According to statistics released by Taiwan, the mainland
has replaced the United States to become the island's
biggest export destination. Taiwan's exports to the mainland
account for 23% of the island's overall exports, compared
with the 21% exported to the United States. (ChinaOnline,
17 April)
Alstom pulls out of China JV
with Electricite De France
Alstom's pullout from a USD 616 million joint venture
with Electricite de France highlights the troubled state
of foreign investment in China 's electricity sector,
which was once touted as a source of rapid earnings. The
Laibin deal was signed in 1997 with great fanfare, using
a novel contract structure known as build-operate-transfer.
(Dow Jones Newswires, 17 April)
China stuck with USD 500 million
unpaid annual heating bill
Chinese who don't pay their heating bills cost the state
almost USD 500 million each year. The national heating
system is a remnant of the communist-era command economy
and welfare system. But like most of the state sector,
the system is now decrepit and riddled with corruption.
(Dow Jones Newswires, 18 April)
Private enterprises top 2 million
At the end of 2001, there were 2.03 million private enterprises
throughout China, an increase of 15.14% over the previous
year. 1.29 million were in urban areas, up 19.64%, and
737'300 were in rural areas, up 8.01%. There were 27.14
million people engaged in private enterprises, an increase
of 12.77%. (ChinaOnline, 18 April)
Statistician rejects foreign
criticism of growth figures
The deputy director of China's State Statistical Bureau
has defended the accuracy of its data and attacked foreign
critics as illogical and ill-informed. It is not only
foreign specialists who are sceptical of bureau figures.
Many members of the public dismiss them as the creation
of officials eager to advance careers and hide failures,
by reporting what superiors want to hear. Last year, all
but one of the provinces and regions reported a higher
economic growth figure than the national one, which means
many or most were lying. (SCMP, 18 April)
Investors' confidence hurt
A recent survey indicates that over 90% of domestic entrepreneurs
were engaged in contract disputes last year. Defaults
on payment of debt, fake or shoddy products, false advertisements
and patent infringements are among the causes of contract
disputes. When the problem spreads, it will affect not
only the managers or certain enterprises, but also the
whole national economy. (China Daily, 18 April)
Taiwan plans to restrict high-tech
engineers from working in China
Taiwanese engineers who design semiconductors, missiles,
jet fighters and submarines may be barred from working
in rival China. The restrictions are part of a plan to
prevent China from getting access to technologies developed
in Taiwan. Taiwan has been particularly concerned about
losing engineers from its vital semiconductor industry.
China hopes it can someday overtake Taiwan's key worldwide
position in the sector. (Yahoo News, 18 April)
Exporters get credit guarantee
promise
China will increase the amount of export credit guarantees
for domestic companies and cut premiums to help firms
explore relatively untapped markets such as Latin America,
the Middle East and Russia. The country will also extend
export credit guarantees to private and foreign-funded
companies in recognition of their role in sustaining the
rapid growth of China's exports. (China Daily, 18 April)
China Beijing airport mulls
RMB 9 billion expansion plan
Beijing Capital International Airport plans a RMB 9 billion
expansion to prepare for traffic growth ahead of the 2008
Olympic. The expansion plan involves building a new runway
and a new terminal. (Dow Jones Newswires, 18 April)
Beijing to build 2nd Airport
before 2008 Olympics
Beijing is planning to build a second airport before the
2008 Olympic Games even though a new terminal is already
planned at the existing international airport. A new runway
and terminal at the existing airport are due to open to
the public and air traffic in 2007. (People's Daily, 19
April)
Expert calls for more financial
aid to SMEs
China's small and medium-sized enterprises are seriously
in need of credit, despite a government campaign to encourage
financing for small firms years ago, said Fan Gang, director
of the National Economic Research Institute. Squeezed
between the tasks of reducing their bad assets and dealing
with formidable foreign competition following the nation's
entry to the WTO, China's commercial banks are withdrawing
from small cities, where the bulk of the smaller firms
are located. (China Daily, 19 April)
IMF urges for flexible Renminbi
- central bank says no need
While the International Monetary Fund urged China to consider
a more flexible exchange rate, the country's central bank
stated there is no real economic reason for the Renminbi
to appreciate. The IMF warned the rise of imports might
outpace the expected growth in export demand caused by
the global economic recovery. However, the IMF argues
rising inflows of foreign investment, favorable debt indicators
and high foreign reserves are likely to protect China
against the effects of possible weakness in the external
demand and investor confidence. (www.cbiz.cn, 19
April)
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2002/01/
IMF: China's growth rate to
reach 7% in 2002
The International Monetary Fund predicted that growth
rate in China would be about 7% in 2002 and 7.4% in 2003.
The IMF said the recent easing of monetary policy in China
is appropriate, especially as the deflationary pressure
has reemerged and the real interest rate edging up. (People's
Daily, 19 April)
China produces 70.2% of world's
aquaculture
China produces 70.2% of the world's farmed fish and other
aquaculture products, a senior official with the Food
and Agriculture Organization said. (People' Daily, 19
April)
EU official raps investment
rules
New rules on foreign investment in the country's telecommunications
sector appear to violate the spirit of the WTO, according
to a European official, indicating a new area of friction
between the major trading partners. (SCMP, 19 April)
China protests as Dutch destroy
Chinese animal products
China has protested strongly over moves taken by the Netherlands
to destroy containers of Chinese animal products stored
in Rotterdam on the grounds that the products breached
EU import regulations. (Xinhua Net, 18 April) Action
leads to reaction
China stops import of animal-related
foods from Netherlands
China bans the import of animal-related food products
from the Netherlands. The proclamation said that Jiangsu
Provincial Administration for Entry-Exit Inspection and
Quarantine spotted chloramphenicol residue in salted pork
intestine casings for sausages. It also stated that all
the animal-related foods coming into China from the Netherlands
before the issuance of the proclamation shall be checked
strictly and those containing poisonous residue will be
destroyed. (Xinhua Net, 19 April)