China's tech surge: regulator chimes in with market-friendly policies to cheer beleaguered stock investors (SCMP)
2022-03-17
China confident on annual growth target despite headwinds (Xinhua)
2022-03-16
China will not pilot property tax reform in more cities in 2022: official (Xinhua)
2022-03-16
China holds off on policy rate cut despite concerns over economic slowdown, but it's 'only a matter of time' (SCMP)
2022-03-15
China's FDI inflow up 37.9 pct in first two months (Xinhua)
2022-03-14
China to build on good business climate (China Daily)
2022-03-14
Analysis: Six Factors That Will Shape China's Economy in 2022 (Caixin)
2022-03-12
China's policymakers closed their annual "Two Sessions" parliamentary meetings on Friday by reiterating an emphasis on stabilizing growth as they unveiled plans to address the key issues facing the economy amid geopolitical turmoil and the latest wave of Covid-19 outbreaks. As the country works towards achieving a GDP growth target of around 5.5% this year — the lowest in more than three decades yet still above many market expectations — economists predict that the government will ramp up the implementation of more targeted macro policies while prioritizing stability. Some analysts also believe that while the tone in regards to regulatory tightening for areas such as anti-monopoly and anti-unfair practices remain unchanged, the momentum of these actions had already peaked by the end of 2021. These insights come as China's economy is currently grappling with the so-called "triple pressures," a term coined during the annual central economic work conference in December to describe the current cocktail of problems — shrinking demand, disrupted supply and weakening expectations. External geopolitical uncertainties have also spiked as Russia's attack on Ukraine has sent jitters across the country's banking industry and stoked volatility in commodity prices. Here are six factors gleaned from the "Two Sessions" meetings that are expected to shape China's economy in 2022.
1. Fiscal and monetary policy
In delivering the annual government work report a week ago, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang announced a proactive fiscal policy that will be more effectual, more targeted, and more sustainable this year. In order to reach the growth target while keeping the budget deficit at around 2.8% of GDP, the government will be expected to boost infrastructure spending to drive growth and offset the adverse impact of a gloomy real estate sector and sluggish consumer spending. At the same time, tax refunds and cuts totaling a record of 2.5 trillion yuan ($394 billion) this year are expected to alleviate the financial strain on businesses, in particular small-and-medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and those in mid-to-high-end sectors including manufacturing, research and technical services, environmental protection, power and gas, and transportation. At a press conference marking the end of the "Two Sessions" on Friday, Premier Li said that when compared to large-scale investments and consumption vouchers, tax and fee cuts have worked "most directly" in lifting smaller businesses out of their financial doldrums, adding that the tax refunds will be prioritized for micro enterprises this year. China's monetary policy will be prudent yet "both flexible and appropriate, with reasonably ample liquidity being maintained," according to the work report. The central bank has already lowered interest rates and reserve requirement ratios for banks over the past three months to support growth, and some experts expect more quantitative measures such as medium-term lending facility loans are in the pipeline. This will help push credit growth to around 11% in mid-2022 before moderating in late 2022, according to analysts at UBS Group AG in a Monday report. Policymakers are aiming to keep the macro-leverage ratio stable and total social financing in line with nominal GDP growth, marking a continuation from 2021 in supporting credit demand and containing systemic risks in China's financial system, according to analysts at Moody's Investors Service Inc. in a Friday report.
2. Employment and consumption
Policymakers are also aiming to add more than 11 million urban jobs in 2022, keeping the surveyed urban unemployment rate under 5.5% and inflation at around 3%. Commitment to employment stability will support household income. Although there is no explicit major budget stimulus plan for consumption, the government called for measures to boost people's spending power, including the purchase of new-energy vehicles and consumption of green home appliances in rural areas. Consumption throughout the year could improve quarter by quarter, analysts at investment bank China International Capital Corp. Ltd. (CICC) said in a report on March 6. However, analysts at Moody's and UBS suggested that uncertainties surrounding Covid-19 could lead to a subdued recovery in consumption and services.
3. Investment
Infrastructure investment will remain a crucial growth driver this year as the central budget for public investment was increased by 5% to 640 billion yuan. The central government is set to transfer 9.8 trillion yuan to local governments, up 18% from 2021, the largest increase in recent years. The annual quota for local governments' special-purpose bonds, which chiefly fund construction projects, will remain flat from 2021 at 3.65 trillion yuan. The government called for making "proactive investments" in infrastructure, especially in major water conservancy projects, transportation, energy and urban gas pipelines. It also urged development of the digital economy, along with the construction of more digital information infrastructure and wider application of 5G technology. As for the property sector, the country will work towards stabilizing land and housing prices along with market expectations, according to the work report. Commitments to accelerating the development of the long-term rental market and the construction of affordable housing were also made. Targeted and localized control to ensure long-term stable development was emphasized, guided by policymakers' long-standing view that "houses are for living in, not for speculation." The ongoing fine tuning of policies as well as the lowering of down payments and interest rates for first-home mortgages are expected to support property sales, according to Moody's analysts. However, overall sales are still expected to decline in 2022 due to relatively weak market sentiment and reduced supply from developers, who may be cutting their budgets to preserve liquidity, said the analysts. The country's embattled property developers will get little assistance from the government in the way of funding, with policymakers expected to control leverage in the sector to prevent risks flowing into the financial system, they added. The government has also committed to "boosting the core competitiveness of manufacturing" and safeguarding supplies of raw materials and key components, with analysts at Moody's expecting stronger state-owned enterprises in key sectors such as advanced equipment and information technology to spend more on research and development. They are also expected to make more investments in upgrading traditional industries to reduce reliance on foreign technology and raw materials, they said. The industry may also see improved cash flow based on the tax refund policy, according to CICC analysts in a separate report on Tuesday.
4. Greater support for the export sector
Although China's exports rose 16.3% in the January to February period from a year earlier, the figure was still down from December's 20.9% gain. Spillover from heightened geopolitical tensions is expected to further weigh on demand for Chinese goods. The government's work report highlighted policy measures to support the export sector by expanding export credit guarantee coverage, facilitating currency exchange services and promoting digitalization.
5. Covid-19 strategy and policies
Despite the government tweaking its approach to battling the pandemic from "zero tolerance" to a "dynamic zero-Covid" policy, which aims to ring-fence outbreaks quickly while acknowledging that cases can't be eliminated, analysts believe the strategy will still come at some economic cost, as reflected by recent weakness in services PMI. Disruptions to in-person activity will intensify in the near-term, even if the revised pandemic approach succeeds in handling the current outbreak, Capital Economics Ltd. economists said in a research note on Friday. They also predicted officials may double down on Covid controls amid a low vaccination rate among the nation's elderly population.
6. Moderation of decarbonization approach
Rather than setting specific targets for decarbonization and cutting energy consumption for 2022, the government called for a flexible assessment of energy intensity within the framework of the 14th Five-Year Plan, the overarching roadmap for economic development from 2021 to 2025. The flexibility reflects Beijing's concern that too stringent decarbonization targets could hurt the economy and energy supply, which could provide temporary relief for traditional energy-intensive sectors and local governments, economists at Moody's said.
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