China’s LGFVs Are Seeing Wave of Bond Plans Vetoed by Regulators (Caixin)
2024-03-08
China’s local government financing vehicles (LGFVs) are finding it a lot harder to issue bonds, as authorities step up efforts to curb risks from the debt-laden sector in a slowing economy. Regulators terminated applications for 53 new LGFV bonds with a combined 75.2 billion yuan ($10.4 billion) in the first two months of the year, the highest for the same period since 2021 when S&P Global Ratings began compiling the data. That compares with 11 vetoed deals worth 17.2 billion yuan a year ago. The regulators reviewing LGFVs’ bond plans include the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges, as well as the National Association of Financial Market Institutional Investors, China’s interbank market watchdog. The trend started in July after Beijing prioritized addressing financial risks including surging local government debt, before reaching a peak in the fourth quarter. The month-on-month momentum eased in February when China was shut for a week-long public holiday. “This points to the continued regulatory tightening since the fourth quarter last year and we haven’t yet seen any signs of relaxation,” said Laura Li, a managing director at S&P, referring to the last two months’ terminated bond deals. “This suggests that it is increasingly difficult for low-quality, low-rated LGFVs, including those from affluent provinces such as Jiangsu and Zhejiang, to issue bonds in future.” Policymakers face an uphill battle in tackling the LGFV sector’s $9 trillion debt pile, at a time when the world’s No. 2 economy is plagued by an ailing housing market, a key revenue source for regional authorities. As a result, authorities are shifting the burden of financing growth stimulus to central government, including the planned issuance of a 1 trillion-yuan ultra-long special sovereign bond this year, the fourth such sale in the past 26 years. Meanwhile, Beijing kicked off a debt swap program worth more than 1 trillion yuan in late September, allowing local governments to replace their so-called hidden debt for bonds carrying lower interest rates. LGFVs need to pay back a record 4.65 trillion yuan of maturing local bonds this year. Most of the proceeds from LGFVs’ new bonds now go on repaying old debt, said Wang Chen, co-founder of Belt & Road Origin (Beijing) Tech Co., a credit risk analysis provider. Between January and February, LGFVs’ total bond issuance stood at 781 billion yuan, down about 4.6% on year, according to data from Zhongtai Securities Co. Ltd. Among the 636 LGFV notes issued in January, 97% are intended for refinancing or repayment, according to a report by CSCI Pengyuan Credit Rating Co.
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